Category: Research

Oil back to normal?

The confusing thing about oil prices is that, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia agreed to production cuts in mid-April, prices continued to fall for

Nigeria GDP: Sliding into recession

On Monday we learned about Q1 2020 GDP, up by 1.87% year-on-year (Q4 2019: +2.27% y/y) with Non-oil growth at just 1.55% y/y. The Non-oil growth drivers were Agriculture and

Economic policy outcomes

Last week the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) surprised the market by cutting its policy rate from 13.50% to 12.50%, a clear signal that it approves of market interest rates

Low interest rates in a low-growth economy

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) meets this week to consider its policy rate and the overall direction of interest rates. As we pointed

Breathing space for FX reserves

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are going up again. This is largely thanks to public-sector loans (such as the US$3.4bn facility granted recently by

The curious equity market rally

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NSE-ASI) staged a rally last week (see Model Equity Portfolio), reflecting optimism. Part of that optimism came from market speculation, later confirmed, of a

The strange case of Africa and COVID-19

Last week several countries, including Nigeria, announced a gradually loosening of lock-down restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. A gradual return to normal life is planned because it is feared

Short and long currency cycles

Last we noted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is in no hurry to raise market interest rates and that – most of the time – Nigeria’s commercial banks

Interest rate conundrum

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is proposing a revised budget for 2020 which is designed to generate a deficit in the region of N5.2 trillion (US$13.5 billion), up from

Oil prices, the new normal

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NSE-ASI) staged a rally last week (see Model Equity Portfolio), reflecting optimism. Part of that optimism came from market speculation, later confirmed, of a

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Year Ahead-Re-risking the financial system

Year Ahead 2020: Re-risking the financial system

Oil prices: In a global oil market threatened with over-supply, it appears that OPEC, and its ally Russia, are doing a good job of limiting production.