The NBS has released its November inflation report to show -
Headline rate 15.40% y/y (15.99% in October):
Core rate 13.85% y/y (13.24%);
and Food rate 17.21% y/y (18.34%).
- November’s headline reading declined by 59bps (when compared with the previous month) to 15.40% y/y. On a monthon-month basis, headline inflation increased by 1.1% in November from 0.9% recorded in October.
- On a y/y basis, imported food price inflation rose to 17.28% y/y from 17.24% y/y recorded in the previous month.
- Core inflation increased by 61bps when compared with the previous month. The highest increases in core inflation were recorded in prices of gas, liquid fuel, non-durable household goods, pharmaceutical products, appliances, articles and products for personal care, garments, fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, vehicle spare parts, passenger transport by road and air, among others.
- According to FMDQ, NAFEX turnover amounted to USD3.4bn in November. Please note that the total inflow was USD1.9bn with the CBN accounting for 31.1%, while the non-bank corporates accounted for 34.9%.
- The NBS tracks headline inflation by state, with Gombe recording the highest (18.54% y/y) and Kwara recording the lowest (11.73% y/y). It is worth noting that household baskets vary across states due to different consumption patterns
- The CBN’s in-house estimates suggest that further rebound in economic growth is hinged on the continued stability in oil price, availability of COVID-19 vaccines as well as high turnout for vaccination in Nigeria and support by both monetary and fiscal policy. Accordingly, inflation is expected to continue its downward trajectory as the harvest season sets in and the FGN works on improving the security situation to ease the bottlenecks constraining food supply
- The CBN’s in-house estimates suggest that further rebound in economic growth is hinged on the continued stability in oil price and robust vaccination in Nigeria and across other countries. However, the important factors required to sustain the momentum include foreign exchange market stability, further reduction in inflationary pressure and continued interventions by the monetary and fiscal authorities.
- The MPC is scheduled to hold its next meeting on the 24th and 25th of January 2022
